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Phoenix Mercury at Chicago Sky

Wintrust Arena · 8/3 - 9:00 PM EDT

The Sky are favored, expected to win by about 2.
🚑 Nudged for a key player being out tonight, on top of team strength.

Phoenix Mercury

Record: 11-19 · away

39/100
Team Strength Score

40.1%Slight Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 50.0% (-110)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Sky compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Sky by ~2.5
Vegas line: PHX -1.5
Projected total score: o178.5
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us59.9%
ESPN50.7%
Vegas50.0%

Chicago Sky

Record: 11-18 · home

24/100
Team Strength Score

59.9%Slight Edge · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 50.0% (-110)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

PHX
CHI

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

PHX
  • PointsKahleah Copper20.9
  • AssistsAlyssa Thomas8.3
  • ReboundsNatasha Mack7.4
Kelsey Plum Out
Sami Whitcomb Day-To-Day
Jovana Nogic Out
CHI
  • PointsSydney Taylor14.7
  • AssistsNatasha Cloud4.6
  • ReboundsKamilla Cardoso8.4
Azura Stevens Out
Skylar Diggins Out
Rickea Jackson Out

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (scoring numbers are scaled for how many points tonight's opponent actually gives up, but nothing else — no adjustment for minutes, rest, or who else is out; rebound and assist numbers aren't scaled at all), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Kamilla Cardoso Rebounds Target: o7.5 (-147) · usually gets 8.4 · +0.9 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 10
2 Alyssa Thomas Points Target: o14.5 (-102) · usually gets 15.24 · +0.74 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 10
3 Kamilla Cardoso Points Target: o13.5 (-128) · usually gets 14.18 · +0.68 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Assists

via DraftKings
  1. Kamilla Cardoso o2.5 (-102) avg 2.5 (0.0)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.6 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes26.4
    Points14.3
    Rebounds8.4
    Assists2.5
    Field goal58.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw74.3%
    Turnovers1.7
  2. Alyssa Thomas o8.5 (+107) avg 8.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.8
    Points14.9
    Rebounds7.1
    Assists8.3
    Field goal52.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw68.3%
    Turnovers3.5
  3. Kahleah Copper o2.5 (+132) avg 1.8 (-0.7)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.7
    Points20.9
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists1.8
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point28.7%
    Free throw80.2%
    Turnovers2.4

Points

via DraftKings
  1. Alyssa Thomas o14.5 (-102) avg 15.24 (+0.74)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 14.9 season average
    Opponent defense +2.3%
    Adjusted for tonight15.24
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 14.5 in 6 of them
    9 SEA
    11 CHI
    22 IND
    7 @LV
    19 @MIN
    17 CON
    7 CON
    19 @LA
    25 GS
    17 NY
    Average over those 1015.3
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.8
    Points14.9
    Rebounds7.1
    Assists8.3
    Field goal52.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw68.3%
    Turnovers3.5
  2. Kamilla Cardoso o13.5 (-128) avg 14.18 (+0.68)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 14.3 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight14.18
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.6 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 13.5 in 5 of them
    24 LV
    16 @LV
    9 @PHX
    15 @LA
    12 @DAL
    13 LA
    15 @ATL
    10 @NY
    26 CON
    8 LV
    Average over those 1014.8
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes26.4
    Points14.3
    Rebounds8.4
    Assists2.5
    Field goal58.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw74.3%
    Turnovers1.7
  3. DeWanna Bonner o10.5 (-126) avg 10.44 (-0.06)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 10.2 season average
    Opponent defense +2.3%
    Adjusted for tonight10.44
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 30 games, 19 starts
    Minutes27.2
    Points10.2
    Rebounds5.8
    Assists1.5
    Field goal39.7%
    Three-point25.4%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  4. Kahleah Copper o21.5 (-126) avg 21.38 (-0.12)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 20.9 season average
    Opponent defense +2.3%
    Adjusted for tonight21.38
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.7
    Points20.9
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists1.8
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point28.7%
    Free throw80.2%
    Turnovers2.4
  5. Sydney Taylor o17.5 (-118) avg 14.58 (-2.92)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 14.7 season average
    Opponent defense -0.8%
    Adjusted for tonight14.58
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.6 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 16 starts
    Minutes20.8
    Points14.7
    Rebounds1.6
    Assists1.6
    Field goal45.5%
    Three-point34.8%
    Free throw82.7%
    Turnovers1.6

Rebounds

via DraftKings
  1. Kamilla Cardoso o7.5 (-147) avg 8.4 (+0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.6 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 7.5 in 6 of them
    8 LV
    10 @LV
    4 @PHX
    8 @LA
    13 @DAL
    11 LA
    4 @ATL
    5 @NY
    6 CON
    12 LV
    Average over those 108.1
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes26.4
    Points14.3
    Rebounds8.4
    Assists2.5
    Field goal58.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw74.3%
    Turnovers1.7
  2. Kahleah Copper o3.5 (-142) avg 3.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes32.7
    Points20.9
    Rebounds3.7
    Assists1.8
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point28.7%
    Free throw80.2%
    Turnovers2.4
  3. Alyssa Thomas o7.5 (-125) avg 7.1 (-0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 28 games, 28 starts
    Minutes33.8
    Points14.9
    Rebounds7.1
    Assists8.3
    Field goal52.1%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw68.3%
    Turnovers3.5
  4. DeWanna Bonner o6.5 (+114) avg 5.8 (-0.7)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 88.3 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 12 of 15 (leakiest, 36 games)
    Their season — 30 games, 19 starts
    Minutes27.2
    Points10.2
    Rebounds5.8
    Assists1.5
    Field goal39.7%
    Three-point25.4%
    Free throw83.6%
    Turnovers0.8
  5. Sydney Taylor o2.5 (+136) avg 1.6 (-0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.6 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 7 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 27 games, 16 starts
    Minutes20.8
    Points14.7
    Rebounds1.6
    Assists1.6
    Field goal45.5%
    Three-point34.8%
    Free throw82.7%
    Turnovers1.6