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Seattle Storm at New York Liberty

Barclays Center · 8/3 - 7:00 PM EDT

The Liberty are favored, expected to win by about 7.
🎯 Liberty rate as one of the biggest mismatches on today's slate.

Seattle Storm

Record: 6-25 · away

8/100
Team Strength Score

23.2%Underdog · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 24.9% (+285)

VS
Our predicted final margin
Liberty by ~7.4
Vegas line: NY -8.5
Projected total score: o180.5
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us76.8%
ESPN83.9%
Vegas75.1%

New York Liberty

Record: 17-13 · home

66/100
Team Strength Score

76.8%Favored · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 75.1% (-360)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

SEA
NY

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

SEA
  • PointsNatisha Hiedeman16.4
  • AssistsNatisha Hiedeman4.6
  • ReboundsDominique Malonga8.7
Taina Mair Out
NY
  • PointsBreanna Stewart21.3
  • AssistsPauline Astier3.5
  • ReboundsJonquel Jones9.0
Satou Sabally Out
Leonie Fiebich Out

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (scoring numbers are scaled for how many points tonight's opponent actually gives up, but nothing else — no adjustment for minutes, rest, or who else is out; rebound and assist numbers aren't scaled at all), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Jonquel Jones Points Target: o12.5 (-130) · usually gets 14.4 · +1.9 above tonight's number · cleared it in 7 of the last 10
2 Dominique Malonga Points Target: o14.5 (-111) · usually gets 16.09 · +1.59 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 10
3 Pauline Astier Points Target: o8.5 (-104) · usually gets 9.7 · +1.2 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Assists

via DraftKings
  1. Jade Melbourne o3.5 (-171) avg 3.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 30 games, 22 starts
    Minutes24.1
    Points8.8
    Rebounds2.0
    Assists3.9
    Field goal45.7%
    Three-point24.6%
    Free throw78.8%
    Turnovers1.9
  2. Flau'jae Johnson o2.5 (-157) avg 2.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes28.3
    Points13.6
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists2.9
    Field goal38.6%
    Three-point26.4%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers2.5
  3. Jonquel Jones o2.5 (-130) avg 2.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes29.3
    Points14.4
    Rebounds9.0
    Assists2.8
    Field goal48.8%
    Three-point38.2%
    Free throw81.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  4. Breanna Stewart o3.5 (-104) avg 3.0 (-0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.7
    Points21.3
    Rebounds8.6
    Assists3.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point28.4%
    Free throw85.2%
    Turnovers2.3
  5. Awa Fam o2.5 (+131) avg 2.0 (-0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 25 games, 21 starts
    Minutes29.8
    Points11.0
    Rebounds6.0
    Assists2.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point35.3%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers1.8
  6. Natisha Hiedeman o5.5 (-115) avg 4.6 (-0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes29.5
    Points16.4
    Rebounds2.8
    Assists4.6
    Field goal45.7%
    Three-point34.6%
    Free throw84.3%
    Turnovers2.4
  7. Sabrina Ionescu o5.5 (-111) avg 4.6 (-0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 18 games, 17 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points16.2
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists4.6
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point34.2%
    Free throw90.5%
    Turnovers2.6

Points

via DraftKings
  1. Jonquel Jones o12.5 (-130) avg 14.4 (+1.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 12.5 in 7 of them
    17 DAL
    15 @MIN
    10 @TOR
    13 @IND
    14 @DAL
    14 CHI
    22 @COOP
    9 @LA
    8 @LV
    16 @PHX
    Average over those 1013.8
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes29.3
    Points14.4
    Rebounds9.0
    Assists2.8
    Field goal48.8%
    Three-point38.2%
    Free throw81.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  2. Dominique Malonga o14.5 (-111) avg 16.09 (+1.59)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 16.3 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight16.09
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 14.5 in 6 of them
    22 POR
    2 @LA
    15 @ATL
    10 @WSH
    16 @CHI
    28 @IND
    14 MIN
    21 MIN
    12 SPO
    16 @ATL
    Average over those 1015.6
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 22 games, 21 starts
    Minutes25.8
    Points16.3
    Rebounds8.7
    Assists1.5
    Field goal48.7%
    Three-point31.7%
    Free throw70.5%
    Turnovers2.9
  3. Pauline Astier o8.5 (-104) avg 9.7 (+1.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 8.5 in 5 of them
    14 MIN
    4 DAL
    4 @MIN
    14 @TOR
    9 @IND
    7 @DAL
    9 CHI
    4 @LA
    19 @LV
    6 @PHX
    Average over those 109.0
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 30 games, 25 starts
    Minutes23.7
    Points9.7
    Rebounds2.5
    Assists3.5
    Field goal54.3%
    Three-point35.9%
    Free throw87.5%
    Turnovers1.7
  4. Jade Melbourne o7.5 (-126) avg 8.69 (+1.19)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 8.8 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight8.69
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 30 games, 22 starts
    Minutes24.1
    Points8.8
    Rebounds2.0
    Assists3.9
    Field goal45.7%
    Three-point24.6%
    Free throw78.8%
    Turnovers1.9
  5. Breanna Stewart o21.5 (-122) avg 21.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.7
    Points21.3
    Rebounds8.6
    Assists3.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point28.4%
    Free throw85.2%
    Turnovers2.3
  6. Natisha Hiedeman o16.5 (-115) avg 16.19 (-0.31)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 16.4 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight16.19
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes29.5
    Points16.4
    Rebounds2.8
    Assists4.6
    Field goal45.7%
    Three-point34.6%
    Free throw84.3%
    Turnovers2.4
  7. Awa Fam o11.5 (-115) avg 10.86 (-0.64)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 11.0 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight10.86
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 25 games, 21 starts
    Minutes29.8
    Points11.0
    Rebounds6.0
    Assists2.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point35.3%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers1.8
  8. Flau'jae Johnson o14.5 (-102) avg 13.43 (-1.07)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 13.6 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight13.43
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes28.3
    Points13.6
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists2.9
    Field goal38.6%
    Three-point26.4%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers2.5

Rebounds

via DraftKings
  1. Flau'jae Johnson o4.5 (-150) avg 5.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes28.3
    Points13.6
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists2.9
    Field goal38.6%
    Three-point26.4%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers2.5
  2. Jonquel Jones o8.5 (-131) avg 9.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes29.3
    Points14.4
    Rebounds9.0
    Assists2.8
    Field goal48.8%
    Three-point38.2%
    Free throw81.1%
    Turnovers2.2
  3. Awa Fam o5.5 (-113) avg 6.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 25 games, 21 starts
    Minutes29.8
    Points11.0
    Rebounds6.0
    Assists2.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point35.3%
    Free throw82.1%
    Turnovers1.8
  4. Natisha Hiedeman o2.5 (-159) avg 2.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 31 games, 31 starts
    Minutes29.5
    Points16.4
    Rebounds2.8
    Assists4.6
    Field goal45.7%
    Three-point34.6%
    Free throw84.3%
    Turnovers2.4
  5. Dominique Malonga o8.5 (+110) avg 8.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 85.2 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 6 of 15 (middle of the pack, 37 games)
    Their season — 22 games, 21 starts
    Minutes25.8
    Points16.3
    Rebounds8.7
    Assists1.5
    Field goal48.7%
    Three-point31.7%
    Free throw70.5%
    Turnovers2.9
  6. Breanna Stewart o8.5 (-140) avg 8.6 (+0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 29 games, 29 starts
    Minutes33.7
    Points21.3
    Rebounds8.6
    Assists3.0
    Field goal47.2%
    Three-point28.4%
    Free throw85.2%
    Turnovers2.3
  7. Sabrina Ionescu o4.5 (-103) avg 4.1 (-0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 18 games, 17 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points16.2
    Rebounds4.1
    Assists4.6
    Field goal42.2%
    Three-point34.2%
    Free throw90.5%
    Turnovers2.6
  8. Rebecca Allen o2.5 (-163) avg 1.6 (-0.9)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 86.8 pts/game vs 86.3 lg avg
    Defensive rank 9 of 15 (middle of the pack, 36 games)
    Their season — 15 games, 5 starts
    Minutes15.7
    Points3.6
    Rebounds1.6
    Assists0.6
    Field goal31.6%
    Three-point28.9%
    Free throw87.5%
    Turnovers0.5