ChaBoi Sportswho's actually going to win?

Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves

Target Center · 11/8 - 7:00 PM EST

The Timberwolves are favored, expected to win by about 15.
Timberwolves rate as one of the biggest mismatches on today's slate.

Utah Jazz

Record: 1-8 · away

7/100
Team Strength Score

8.2%Long Shot · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 17.7% (+443)

VS
Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Timberwolves compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Timberwolves by ~15.0
Vegas line: MIN -11.5
We project a total of ~225.3
Vegas total: 223.5 · we lean OVER
Sportsbook lines, for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us91.8%
ESPN85.8%
Vegas82.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 7-3 · home

83/100
Team Strength Score

91.8%Strong Favorite · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 82.3% (-597)

How each team's form has trended (last 20 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

UTAH
UTAH: 1277.6
MIN
MIN: 1626.3

Players to know

Season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

UTAH
  • PointsKeyonte George21.3
  • AssistsKeyonte George6.2
  • ReboundsAce Bailey7.0
Lauri Markkanen Day-To-Day
Jusuf Nurkic Out
Jaren Jackson Jr. Out
MIN
  • PointsLaMelo Ball17.7
  • AssistsLaMelo Ball6.1
  • ReboundsRudy Gobert11.8
Joan Beringer Day-To-Day
Anthony Edwards Out
Donte DiVincenzo Out

Player Props

Real sportsbook lines, ranked by how low tonight's number looks against each player's normal season average.

How to read this

The number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5). When shown, the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not), and "opened" is where the line started before it moved. Players are ranked within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. Not a prediction for tonight specifically (scoring numbers are scaled for how many points tonight's opponent gives up, but nothing else — no adjustment for minutes, rest, or who else is out; rebound and assist numbers aren't scaled at all), just a "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player for detail. Players with no average shown couldn't be confidently matched to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Jaden McDaniels Assists Pick: OVER 2.5 · usually gets 3.7 · +1.2 above tonight's number · cleared it in 9 of the last 10
2 Terrence Shannon Jr. Rebounds Pick: OVER 2.5 · usually gets 3.6 · +1.1 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 7
3 Lauri Markkanen Threes Pick: OVER 2.5 · usually gets 3.6 · +1.1 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 8
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Points

via DraftKings
  1. Jaden McDaniels o17.5 avg 18.56 (+1.06)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 17.1 season average
    Opponent defense +8.6%
    Adjusted for tonight18.56
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes33.9
    Points17.1
    Rebounds6.2
    Assists3.7
    Field goal51.1%
    Three-point30.4%
    Free throw76.5%
    Turnovers1.8
  2. Terrence Shannon Jr. o12.5 avg 13.03 (+0.53)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 12.0 season average
    Opponent defense +8.6%
    Adjusted for tonight13.03
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 7 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.0
    Points12.0
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists2.6
    Field goal42.4%
    Three-point39.4%
    Free throw72.4%
    Turnovers1.4
  3. Ayo Dosunmu o18.5 avg 18.78 (+0.28)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 17.3 season average
    Opponent defense +8.6%
    Adjusted for tonight18.78
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 6 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points17.3
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists4.3
    Field goal51.9%
    Three-point42.5%
    Free throw85.7%
    Turnovers2.0
  4. Jonathan Kuminga o14.5 avg 14.22 (-0.28)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 13.1 season average
    Opponent defense +8.6%
    Adjusted for tonight14.22
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points13.1
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists3.0
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point42.6%
    Free throw52.8%
    Turnovers0.9
  5. Keyonte George o21.5 avg 21.03 (-0.47)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 21.3 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight21.03
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes32.3
    Points21.3
    Rebounds4.2
    Assists6.2
    Field goal45.5%
    Three-point32.1%
    Free throw77.2%
    Turnovers3.9
  6. Darryn Peterson o14.5 opened 13.5 avg 13.43 (-1.07)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 13.6 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight13.43
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes30.2
    Points13.6
    Rebounds3.8
    Assists3.9
    Field goal36.9%
    Three-point34.1%
    Free throw89.3%
    Turnovers1.3
  7. Jaylen Clark o6.5 avg 5.32 (-1.18)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 4.9 season average
    Opponent defense +8.6%
    Adjusted for tonight5.32
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 0 starts
    Minutes13.6
    Points4.9
    Rebounds1.9
    Assists0.8
    Field goal42.9%
    Three-point40.0%
    Free throw54.5%
    Turnovers0.6
  8. Jaxson Hayes o8.5 avg 7.31 (-1.19)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 7.4 season average
    Opponent defense -1.3%
    Adjusted for tonight7.31
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 8 games, 6 starts
    Minutes25.0
    Points7.4
    Rebounds6.4
    Assists2.0
    Field goal57.5%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw72.2%
    Turnovers1.5

Assists

via DraftKings
  1. Jaden McDaniels o2.5 avg 3.7 (+1.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Last 10 games — cleared 2.5 in 9 of them
    1 @MIA
    3 @ORL
    3 TOR
    4 @CLE
    4 GS
    7 LAC
    3 @SA
    3 MIL
    4 @HOU
    5 @NO
    Average over those 103.7
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes33.9
    Points17.1
    Rebounds6.2
    Assists3.7
    Field goal51.1%
    Three-point30.4%
    Free throw76.5%
    Turnovers1.8
  2. Jonathan Kuminga o2.5 avg 3.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points13.1
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists3.0
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point42.6%
    Free throw52.8%
    Turnovers0.9
  3. Lauri Markkanen o1.5 avg 2.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 8 games, 8 starts
    Minutes30.9
    Points18.0
    Rebounds6.8
    Assists2.0
    Field goal38.9%
    Three-point39.7%
    Free throw84.4%
    Turnovers1.5
  4. Darryn Peterson o3.5 opened 4.5 avg 3.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes30.2
    Points13.6
    Rebounds3.8
    Assists3.9
    Field goal36.9%
    Three-point34.1%
    Free throw89.3%
    Turnovers1.3
  5. Ayo Dosunmu o4.5 avg 4.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 6 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points17.3
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists4.3
    Field goal51.9%
    Three-point42.5%
    Free throw85.7%
    Turnovers2.0
  6. Keyonte George o6.5 opened 5.5 avg 6.2 (-0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes32.3
    Points21.3
    Rebounds4.2
    Assists6.2
    Field goal45.5%
    Three-point32.1%
    Free throw77.2%
    Turnovers3.9
  7. LaMelo Ball o7.5 avg 6.1 (-1.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes27.5
    Points17.7
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists6.1
    Field goal44.1%
    Three-point38.4%
    Free throw80.0%
    Turnovers3.9

Rebounds

via DraftKings
  1. Terrence Shannon Jr. o2.5 avg 3.6 (+1.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Last 7 games — cleared 2.5 in 6 of them
    1 @MIA
    4 @ORL
    4 TOR
    4 @CLE
    6 GS
    3 LAC
    3 @SA
    Average over those 73.6
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 7 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 7 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.0
    Points12.0
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists2.6
    Field goal42.4%
    Three-point39.4%
    Free throw72.4%
    Turnovers1.4
  2. Jaden McDaniels o5.5 avg 6.2 (+0.7)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes33.9
    Points17.1
    Rebounds6.2
    Assists3.7
    Field goal51.1%
    Three-point30.4%
    Free throw76.5%
    Turnovers1.8
  3. Ace Bailey o6.5 opened 5.5 avg 7.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 8 starts
    Minutes30.4
    Points12.4
    Rebounds7.0
    Assists1.8
    Field goal46.2%
    Three-point22.4%
    Free throw71.4%
    Turnovers1.9
  4. Ayo Dosunmu o4.5 avg 5.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 6 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points17.3
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists4.3
    Field goal51.9%
    Three-point42.5%
    Free throw85.7%
    Turnovers2.0
  5. Jonathan Kuminga o5.5 opened 6.5 avg 5.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points13.1
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists3.0
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point42.6%
    Free throw52.8%
    Turnovers0.9
  6. Rudy Gobert o11.5 avg 11.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes29.8
    Points7.6
    Rebounds11.8
    Assists1.3
    Field goal46.2%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw40.8%
    Turnovers1.0
  7. Lauri Markkanen o6.5 avg 6.8 (+0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 8 games, 8 starts
    Minutes30.9
    Points18.0
    Rebounds6.8
    Assists2.0
    Field goal38.9%
    Three-point39.7%
    Free throw84.4%
    Turnovers1.5
  8. Jaxson Hayes o6.5 avg 6.4 (-0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 8 games, 6 starts
    Minutes25.0
    Points7.4
    Rebounds6.4
    Assists2.0
    Field goal57.5%
    Three-point0.0%
    Free throw72.2%
    Turnovers1.5

Threes

via DraftKings
  1. Lauri Markkanen o2.5 avg 3.6 (+1.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Last 8 games — cleared 2.5 in 5 of them
    1 @MEM
    4 NO
    5 LAL
    0 MEM
    2 POR
    4 @SA
    5 @NO
    8 @DAL
    Average over those 83.6
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 8 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
    Their season — 8 games, 8 starts
    Minutes30.9
    Points18.0
    Rebounds6.8
    Assists2.0
    Field goal38.9%
    Three-point39.7%
    Free throw84.4%
    Turnovers1.5
  2. Jonathan Kuminga o1.5 avg 2.0 (+0.5)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes31.2
    Points13.1
    Rebounds5.9
    Assists3.0
    Field goal43.8%
    Three-point42.6%
    Free throw52.8%
    Turnovers0.9
  3. Terrence Shannon Jr. o1.5 avg 1.9 (+0.4)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 7 games, 0 starts
    Minutes22.0
    Points12.0
    Rebounds3.6
    Assists2.6
    Field goal42.4%
    Three-point39.4%
    Free throw72.4%
    Turnovers1.4
  4. Ayo Dosunmu o1.5 avg 1.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 6 starts
    Minutes31.5
    Points17.3
    Rebounds5.0
    Assists4.3
    Field goal51.9%
    Three-point42.5%
    Free throw85.7%
    Turnovers2.0
  5. Darryn Peterson o1.5 avg 1.7 (+0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 9 starts
    Minutes30.2
    Points13.6
    Rebounds3.8
    Assists3.9
    Field goal36.9%
    Three-point34.1%
    Free throw89.3%
    Turnovers1.3
  6. Jaden McDaniels o1.5 avg 1.4 (-0.1)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes33.9
    Points17.1
    Rebounds6.2
    Assists3.7
    Field goal51.1%
    Three-point30.4%
    Free throw76.5%
    Turnovers1.8
  7. LaMelo Ball o3.5 avg 3.3 (-0.2)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 125.2 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 30 of 30 (leakiest, 91 games)
    Their season — 10 games, 10 starts
    Minutes27.5
    Points17.7
    Rebounds3.3
    Assists6.1
    Field goal44.1%
    Three-point38.4%
    Free throw80.0%
    Turnovers3.9
  8. Ace Bailey o1.5 avg 1.2 (-0.3)
    Why this number
    Defense they're facing
    Opponent gives up 113.9 pts/game vs 115.4 lg avg
    Defensive rank 11 of 30 (middle of the pack, 92 games)
    Their season — 9 games, 8 starts
    Minutes30.4
    Points12.4
    Rebounds7.0
    Assists1.8
    Field goal46.2%
    Three-point22.4%
    Free throw71.4%
    Turnovers1.9
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