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Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

American Family Field · 8/3 - 7:40 PM EDT

The Brewers are favored, expected to win by about 1.
⚾ Nudged by today's starting pitchers, on top of team strength.
🚑 Nudged for a key player being out tonight, on top of team strength.
🌡️ 76°F 💨 12 mph gusts at American Family Field
🎯 Brewers rate as one of the biggest mismatches on today's slate.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 56-57 · away

⚾ Probable pitcher: Bubba Chandler (4.56 ERA, 3-8)

12/100
Team Strength Score

46.7%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 43.4% (125)

VS
👀 Betting-value note (separate from our actual pick above): the markets may be underpricing the Pirates compared to what our model thinks.
Our predicted final margin
Brewers by ~0.5
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us53.3%
ESPN53.8%
Vegas56.6%

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 69-42 · home

⚾ Probable pitcher: Brandon Sproat (5.05 ERA, 3-6)

42/100
Team Strength Score

53.3%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 56.6% (-138)

How each team's form has trended (last 5 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

PIT
MIL

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

PIT
  • Batting AverageNick Gonzales.312
  • Home RunsBrandon Lowe23
  • Runs Batted InBrandon Lowe71
  • Earned Run AveragePaul Skenes3.90
  • WinsBraxton Ashcraft11
  • StrikeoutsPaul Skenes156
Evan Sisk 15-Day-IL
Chris Devenski 60-Day-IL
Oneil Cruz 60-Day-IL
Konnor Griffin 60-Day-IL
Ryan O'Hearn 10-Day-IL
MIL
  • Batting AverageJackson Chourio.276
  • Home RunsJake Bauers20
  • Runs Batted InBrice Turang69
  • Earned Run AverageJacob Misiorowski1.63
  • WinsAaron Ashby12
  • StrikeoutsJacob Misiorowski195
Kyle Harrison 15-Day-IL
Rob Zastryzny 60-Day-IL
Sal Frelick 10-Day-IL
Joel Kuhnel 15-Day-IL
Quinn Priester 60-Day-IL

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's actual ballpark), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Brandon Lowe Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+121) · usually gets 2.9 · +1.4 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
2 Jackson Chourio Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+130) · usually gets 2.21 · +0.71 above tonight's number · cleared it in 3 of the last 10
3 Nick Gonzales Hits Target: o0.5 (-219) · usually gets 1.19 · +0.69 above tonight's number · cleared it in 9 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. Nick Gonzales o0.5 (-219) avg 1.19 (+0.69)
    Why this number
    Last 10 games — cleared 0.5 in 9 of them
    2 @NYY
    1 CHC
    1 CHC
    2 CHC
    2 ARI
    2 ARI
    1 ARI
    2 @CIN
    2 @CIN
    0 @CIN
    Average over those 101.5
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Jackson Chourio o0.5 (-225) avg 1.16 (+0.66)
  3. Brice Turang o0.5 (-215) avg 1.06 (+0.56)
  4. William Contreras o0.5 (-220) avg 1.04 (+0.54)
  5. Brandon Lowe o0.5 (-202) avg 1.01 (+0.51)
  6. Bryan Reynolds o0.5 (-166) avg 0.98 (+0.48)
  7. Christian Yelich o0.5 (-184) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  8. Spencer Horwitz o0.5 (-171) avg 0.92 (+0.42)

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Brandon Lowe o1.5 (+121) avg 2.9 (+1.4)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.93 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.9
    Held back to +50%: those factors multiplied out to +91.3%, but they overlap (a hot day and a homer-prone park describe some of the same thing), so stacking them in full would overstate it.
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 291 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 111.1 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 44.7% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 12.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 35.7% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 393.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 5 of them
    1 @NYY
    0 @NYY
    0 CHC
    4 CHC
    4 ARI
    6 ARI
    1 ARI
    4 @CIN
    4 @CIN
    1 @CIN
    Average over those 102.5
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Jackson Chourio o1.5 (+130) avg 2.21 (+0.71)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.92 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter -25.0%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.21
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 236 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 91.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 113.3 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 45.5% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 12.7% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 32.6% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 402.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 3 of them
    1 NYM
    1 NYM
    1 COL
    1 COL
    4 COL
    1 @SF
    2 @SF
    0 @SF
    1 @LAA
    2 @LAA
    Average over those 101.4
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Brice Turang o1.5 (+135) avg 1.92 (+0.42)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.81 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter -25.0%
    Barrel rate +15.5%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight1.92
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 298 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.4 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.8 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 41.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 8.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 37.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 407.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  4. Nick Gonzales o1.5 (+163) avg 1.76 (+0.26)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.54 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense +9.6%
    Adjusted for tonight1.76
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 329 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 86.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.7 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 35.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 3.0% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 34.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 397.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  5. William Contreras o1.5 (+144) avg 1.42 (-0.08)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.51 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter -25.0%
    Barrel rate +1.8%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight1.42
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 337 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 89.8 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.8 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 43.0% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 7.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 31.8% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 419.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  6. Jake Mangum o1.5 (+133) avg 1.23 (-0.27)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.22 season average
    Ballpark +5.0%
    Temperature +6.0%
    Opposing starter +25.0%
    Barrel rate -25.0%
    Expected offense -3.6%
    Adjusted for tonight1.23
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 237 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 85.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 104.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 25.7% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 1.3% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 25.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 384.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg

Strikeouts

via DraftKings
  1. Bubba Chandler o4.5 (-157) avg 4.65 (+0.15)
  2. Brandon Sproat o5.5 (-102) avg 5.33 (-0.17)