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San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field · 8/3 - 9:40 PM EDT

Toss-up: about a coin flip between the Padres and the Diamondbacks.
⚾ Nudged by today's starting pitchers, on top of team strength.
🚑 Nudged for a key player being out tonight, on top of team strength.
🌡️ 113°F 💨 16 mph gusts at Chase Field
🎯 Windy enough to matter for fly balls.

San Diego Padres

Record: 58-54 · away

⚾ Probable pitcher: Michael King (3.38 ERA, 6-7)

78/100
Team Strength Score

49.2%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 50.7% (-108)

VS
Our predicted final margin
Diamondbacks by ~0.1
Real sportsbook lines, shown for comparison only — not betting advice.
Home team's odds, a few different ways
Us50.8%
ESPN58.5%
Vegas49.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks

Record: 59-53 · home

⚾ Probable pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt (4.00 ERA, 5-1)

72/100
Team Strength Score

50.8%Toss-up · chance to win

Vegas thinks: 49.3% (-102)

How each team's form has trended (last 5 games)

Going up means the team's been playing better than expected lately; going down means worse.

SD
ARI

Players to know

Real season stats for each team's top performers, plus anyone banged up — useful if you've got these guys in a lineup.

SD
  • Batting AverageFernando Tatis Jr..283
  • Home RunsManny Machado23
  • Runs Batted InManny Machado65
  • Earned Run AverageMichael King3.38
  • WinsAdrian Morejon8
  • StrikeoutsMichael King109
Samad Taylor 10-Day-IL
David Morgan 15-Day-IL
Lucas Giolito 15-Day-IL
Jason Adam 15-Day-IL
Nick Pivetta 60-Day-IL
ARI
  • Batting AverageGabriel Moreno.298
  • Home RunsKetel Marte19
  • Runs Batted InKetel Marte62
  • Earned Run AverageEduardo Rodriguez2.48
  • WinsEduardo Rodriguez10
  • StrikeoutsEduardo Rodriguez88
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. 10-Day-IL
Tommy Troy 10-Day-IL
Michael Soroka 15-Day-IL
Jordan Lawlar 10-Day-IL
Drey Jameson 15-Day-IL

🎰 Player Props

These are real bets you could place tonight — the number after "o" is the target (e.g. "o0.5" means more than 0.5), and the number in parentheses is the payout odds (negative means the book expects it to happen more often than not). We've ranked players within each stat by comparing their normal season average to tonight's number — the bigger the gap, the more that number looks low for what they usually do. This isn't a prediction for tonight specifically (no adjustment for who's pitching, weather, or a hot streak, though home run and total bases numbers are scaled for tonight's actual ballpark), just an honest "does this look low" check. Open "Why this number" on any player to see what went into it. Players with no average shown are ones we couldn't confidently match to season stats. Different lines can come from different sportsbooks, so each card names its source.

🎯 Where tonight's numbers look lowest for what these players usually do
1 Ketel Marte Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+117) · usually gets 2.44 · +0.94 above tonight's number · cleared it in 4 of the last 10
2 Corbin Carroll Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+105) · usually gets 2.41 · +0.91 above tonight's number · cleared it in 5 of the last 10
3 Ty France Total Bases Target: o1.5 (+112) · usually gets 2.33 · +0.83 above tonight's number · cleared it in 6 of the last 10
Biggest gap between season average and tonight's number — a real signal worth a look, not a guarantee. Small sample, no adjustment for matchup or weather.

Hits

via DraftKings
  1. Gabriel Moreno o0.5 (-231) avg 1.05 (+0.55)
  2. Ketel Marte o0.5 (-223) avg 1.02 (+0.52)
  3. Ryan Waldschmidt o0.5 (-132) avg 0.96 (+0.46)
  4. Ty France o0.5 (-267) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  5. Corbin Carroll o0.5 (-218) avg 0.93 (+0.43)
  6. Geraldo Perdomo o0.5 (-204) avg 0.85 (+0.35)
  7. Luis Campusano o0.5 (-163) avg 0.84 (+0.34)
  8. Nolan Arenado o0.5 (-169) avg 0.83 (+0.33)

Total Bases

via DraftKings
  1. Ketel Marte o1.5 (+117) avg 2.44 (+0.94)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.81 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -15.9%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.44
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 364 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.4 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 116.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 43.4% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 10.2% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 32.1% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 412.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 4 of them
    0 ATH
    3 ATH
    1 @WSH
    0 @WSH
    4 @WSH
    1 @PIT
    2 @PIT
    1 @PIT
    1 @CLE
    2 @CLE
    Average over those 101.5
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  2. Corbin Carroll o1.5 (+105) avg 2.41 (+0.91)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.8 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -15.9%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.41
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 301 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 91.9 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 49.2% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 12.3% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 29.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 401.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 5 of them
    7 ATH
    3 @STL
    1 @WSH
    0 @WSH
    2 @WSH
    1 @PIT
    1 @PIT
    2 @PIT
    0 @CLE
    5 @CLE
    Average over those 102.2
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  3. Ty France o1.5 (+112) avg 2.33 (+0.83)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.69 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -13.4%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.33
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 201 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 92.5 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.6 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 49.8% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 11.4% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.8% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 394.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
    Last 10 games — cleared 1.5 in 6 of them
    0 @ATL
    4 @ATL
    3 @MIA
    2 @MIA
    2 @MIA
    1 COL
    1 COL
    0 SF
    2 SF
    3 SF
    Average over those 101.8
    Oldest on the left. Shown as history, not folded into the number above — 10 games is a small sample, and a streak that already happened is not a reason to expect another one.
  4. Manny Machado o1.5 (+124) avg 2.19 (+0.69)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.59 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -13.4%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.19
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 306 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.6 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 112.0 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 44.1% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 11.1% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 33.7% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 397.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  5. Fernando Tatis Jr. o1.5 (-122) avg 2.16 (+0.66)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.56 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -13.4%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight2.16
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 341 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 92.2 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 115.7 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 53.4% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 10.6% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 30.8% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 413.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  6. Jackson Merrill o1.5 (+108) avg 2.09 (+0.59)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.54 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -13.4%
    Barrel rate +25.0%
    Expected offense +7.9%
    Adjusted for tonight2.09
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 311 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 90.0 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 109.7 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 46.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 10.6% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.3% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 409.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  7. Gabriel Moreno o1.5 (+134) avg 1.73 (+0.23)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.54 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -15.9%
    Barrel rate +4.5%
    Expected offense +10.0%
    Adjusted for tonight1.73
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 251 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 89.3 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 110.9 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 42.2% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 7.6% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 38.2% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 400.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg
  8. Xander Bogaerts o1.5 (+152) avg 0.95 (-0.55)
    Why this number
    Tonight's adjustments, starting from a 1.11 season average
    Ballpark +1.0%
    Temperature +15.0%
    Opposing starter -13.4%
    Barrel rate -20.2%
    Expected offense +5.8%
    Adjusted for tonight0.95
    How hard they actually hit the ball — 293 batted balls this season
    Avg exit velo 88.1 mph vs 88.3 mph lg avg
    Max exit velo 111.0 mph vs 109.1 mph lg avg
    Hard-hit rate 38.9% vs 37.1% lg avg
    Barrel rate 5.8% vs 7.3% lg avg
    Sweet-spot rate 27.6% vs 32.7% lg avg
    Avg HR distance 396.0 ft vs 394.6 ft lg avg

Strikeouts

via DraftKings
  1. Michael King o4.5 (-112) avg 4.95 (+0.45)
  2. Brandon Pfaadt o3.5 (-160)