📈 How Good Are MLB Predictions, Really?
We don't just make predictions and move on — every one gets written down and checked against what actually happened. Here's the honest scorecard, good or bad.
⬇ Download the full graded history as CSV — don't take our word for it, run your own numbers.
Not enough finished MLB games yet this season to build an honest track record. Check back once more games have been played.
🆚 Us vs. Vegas vs. ESPN
Every prediction we make is written down before the game happens, then graded once it's over — so this is a real report card, not hindsight. 0 games graded so far, 104 still waiting on a result.
Results last checked 2026-08-03 02:03:09 UTC, across all sports — 0 newly graded that run.
No games have finished yet since we started keeping score — check back once today's games wrap up.
Show the stats behind this
For each prediction we also track how confident we were, not just whether we got the winner right — a model that says "90%" and is wrong should be judged more harshly than one that says "51%" and is wrong. That's what "average error" below measures (lower is better; 0 would be a perfect psychic, 0.25 is what you'd get by always guessing 50/50).
🧪 The Longer History
We also replayed this whole season game-by-game, only ever using information the model would have actually had before each game — a much bigger sample (0 games) than the live scorecard above, though it's a simulation rather than predictions made in real time.
Show the stats behind this
"All games" includes stretches early in a season where teams don't have much of a track record yet, which makes predictions noisier. "5+ games of history" filters those out. We don't compare against Vegas here because ESPN's data doesn't keep betting odds around for games that already happened — only the live scorecard above can do that comparison.
All Games
53.5%
71 games · average error 0.247
5+ Games of History
Not enough data yet.
🔧 Are We Improving the Model Over Time?
We don't have enough game history yet to safely test whether small adjustments would help — testing too early risks mistaking luck for a real improvement. For now, MLB runs the settings we started with.